Before comparing market cap with FDV, identify the supply behind each number. A small circulating market cap and a much larger reference valuation describe different unit counts at the same price. They do not establish that a token is cheap, expensive or destined to fall.
A useful research note records four things together: price, supply figure, supply definition and timestamp. Without that context, two websites can appear to disagree even when each is multiplying correctly. Our Market Cap & FDV Calculator makes the chosen reference supply explicit.
Circulating, total and maximum are not interchangeable
CoinMarketCap’s supply methodology separates circulation from total minted supply net of burns and from maximum supply. It labels price times maximum supply as FDV and price times total supply as a minted-supply valuation. Its circulation assessment can exclude holdings that do not meet its public-float criteria; an unlocked token is therefore not automatically counted the same way in every metric.
Terminology is not perfectly uniform. CoinGecko’s FDV explainer uses total supply in its formula and notes that minting and burning can change supply. When copying a number, inspect what that provider actually used. Do not silently replace “total” with “maximum” because a label sounds familiar.
For a token without a meaningful fixed maximum, leaving maximum-based FDV blank is more honest than inventing a cap. You can still examine a stated total-supply valuation and separately describe an emission scenario. An unknown supply is missing information, not zero supply.
A higher market cap can coexist with a lower token price
Use a fictional token priced at 2 USD with 100 million circulating units. Its circulating valuation is 200 million USD. Suppose the stated maximum is 500 million: at the same price, the maximum-supply valuation is 1 billion USD. Now compare two hypothetical futures:
| Case | Circulating cap | Circulating units | Implied price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starting inputs | 200m USD | 100m | 2.00 USD |
| Cap rises; supply unchanged | 300m USD | 100m | 3.00 USD |
| Cap rises; circulation doubles | 300m USD | 200m | 1.50 USD |
The third row is simply 300 million divided by 200 million. Its price is 25% below the starting price even though its circulating cap is 50% higher. A target-price estimate that held supply constant would miss that difference. The example does not predict an unlock date, future demand or selling activity.
Turn an unlock headline into specific questions
An unlock concerns restrictions becoming eligible to lapse under a schedule. Eligibility to transfer is not proof that every recipient immediately sells. CoinGecko’s FDV glossary also stresses that releasing supply can take time and can affect price. The useful next step is to inspect the underlying project evidence, not mechanically subtract the unlock percentage from today’s price.
- Which units? Identify the allocation and whether the event is a cliff, a gradual release or an emission assumption. Do not count the same allocation twice.
- Which denominator? “10% unlocked” is incomplete without saying 10% of the circulating, total, maximum or locked allocation.
- Which date and source? Read current project documentation and, where interpretable, the relevant contract or vesting record. Keep the source and date beside your note.
- What changes in the metric? Check whether released units were already included in the provider’s circulation estimate.
- What is still unknown? Separate a documented schedule from an assumption about transfers, sales or future buyers.
Multiplication does not create exit liquidity
Market cap applies a reference price to a unit count. It does not total all historical cash invested, measure the project’s treasury or promise that every holder could sell at that reference price. Selling a large quantity is an execution question with its own price and liquidity constraints, not a division problem.
Keep scenario notes conditional: “If circulating cap were X and circulation were Y, the implied price would be X ÷ Y.” That wording preserves the two assumptions. Calling the same calculation a price target with no conditions makes it sound as though the market outcome has already been established.
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